India and Maldives have traditionally shared a close relationship, with the latter being a key maritime neighbor in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Due to its proximity and its location at the hub of commercial sea lanes in the Indian Ocean, the Maldives is significantly important to India. The two nations advanced as allies, with the Maldives finding a special place in the Modi government’s Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) and Neighborhood First Policy initiatives. In addition to that, Maldives’ tourism also gained significantly, with Indians considering it a premier tourist destination. Furthermore, India operates military assets there for surveillance, medical evacuations, and patrolling in the Indian Ocean.
The first signal of the tensions between India and Maldives emerged when Mohamed Muizzu, who campaigned for Presidential elections on pledging to reduce India’s influence and to evict Indian forces, became the Maldives President in 2023. His pro-China and anti-India stand was crystal clear from the very beginning. In January, President Muizzu formally requested the withdrawal of Indian military personnel from the Maldivian Islands, accusing his predecessor of compromising national security. President Muizzu’s stance is causing a growing rift in India and Maldives’ relations, while Beijing and New Delhi are competing for influence in the region.
Recent friction between India and Maldives
Recently, the diplomatic tensions between India and Maldives intensified when three Maldivian junior ministers made derogatory comments against Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on social media, labeling him as a “clown,” a “terrorist,” and a “puppet of Israel”. The ministers were suspended and their posts removed in response to the public outcry. The Maldivian foreign ministry issued a statement, asserting that the ministers’ comments were personal and did not reflect the government’s official stance.
However, a wave of outrage and calls for a boycott against the Maldives swept through Indian social media platforms. As a result, concerns are arising over a potential boycott of the Maldives by Indian tourists as Indian tourists constituted the largest nationality group visiting the Island nation last year, contributing significantly to the tourism-driven economy, which accounts for nearly one-third of its financial activities.
Is China’s Influence Acting as a Geopolitical Divider in India and Maldives Relations?
Amid the diplomatic dispute with India, the Maldivian President embarked on a five-day state visit to China starting on January 10, signaling a shift in alliances. During the visit, President Muizzu, seen as a pro-China leader, engaged in discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Chinese officials, resulting in the signing of 20 key agreements. The agreements cover various aspects of cooperation, including tourism, disaster risk reduction, the blue economy, and strengthening investment in the digital economy. The two leaders announced the elevation of bilateral ties to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership and also signed a $50 million project to develop an integrated tourism zone on the Indian Ocean Island.
Among the key projects outlined in the agreements are the acceleration of the Cooperation Plan on the Belt and Road Initiative, a social housing project on Fushidhiggaru Falhu, fisheries products processing factories, and the redevelopment of Male and Vilimale Roads Development Projects. Before the recent developments, China and the Maldives have nurtured a strong economic relationship. In 2022, China’s bilateral trade with the Maldives amounted to $451.29 million, with Chinese exports dominating the trade flow. At the Maldives Investment Forum, President Muizzu actively sought investments from Chinese companies for 11 projects. Additionally, the Maldives carries a significant debt owed to China, accounting for approximately 20% of its public debt.
The relationship between India and Maldives surely faces challenges due to geopolitical shifts, economic dependencies, and changing alliances, with the Maldives seeking to balance ties between India and China. The recent diplomatic spat denotes the delicate balance between political relations and economic dependencies, and the Maldives stance clearly indicates that it is ready to face the consequences of strained ties with India while strengthening partnerships with China. Amid the conflict, the Maldivian government extended wishes on the 75th Indian Republic Day, referring to the centuries-long friendship. However, will India and Maldives remain as allies as they used to be? Well, only time will reveal this.
India and Maldives Rift: Impact on Tourism and Economy
The Ministry of External Affairs in India stated that discussions are ongoing, emphasizing its commitment to development projects in the Maldives. However, there is no official comment on the March 15 deadline for troop withdrawal. The situation is diplomatically sensitive, with concerns about the potential harm to relations between the two countries. The Maldives, being a small island nation, depends on India for various aspects, including food, infrastructure developments, and technological advancements.
The tourism sector constitutes nearly one-third of the Maldives’ economy. So, major concerns arise over potential economic consequences, as India is a significant tourist contributor, and the diplomatic row led to a series of cancellations of reservations by Indian tourists. In 2023, India sent the highest number of tourists to the Maldives, with 209,198 arrivals. Russia followed in second place with 209,146 arrivals, and China ranked third with 187,118.